Current projects

• Brexit Impacts on Ro-Ro Traffic and Logistics at Dover [PDF]

Our study investigates the impacts of Brexit on the traffic, logistics cost, and competitiveness of Dover. We found:

•  Massive queues out of Dover will happen after Brexit, if no measure is taken.
•  4.5 hour delay could happen for trucks.
•  Supply chain cost increases by 4.79% to 19.44% for a case study company in Germany.
•  Ro-Ro port Newhaven and container port Southampton could be more competitive.
•   Possible alleviating solutions are tested. 

• Part One: Benefits and  Concerns of Containership Pooling [PDF]
• Part Two: Containership Charter Price Analysis
• Part Three: Revenue Sharing for Vessel Polling based on Shapley Value [PDF]

The overarching purpose of this project is to discuss and evaluate the benefits, concerns and potential market effects of ship pooling as a collaboration measures for containership owners, especially at the current difficult period of global shipping industry. An empirical analysis is conducted to estimate the ship pooling impacts on the shipping market, and a new method of revenue sharing among pooling members will be proposed using Cooperative Game Theory. This study will be composed of three parts. Part One offers a brief overview of the current status of global shipping market and an introduction of ship pooling as a collaboration measures for ship owners (as the supplier of ships), as well as its benefits and concerns. Part Two will focus on the impacts of containership pooling on the overall container shipping market and on the market power balance between the ship suppliers and the ship charters (global liner coalitions). In the final part of the project, revenue-sharing schemes for the ship pools will be discussed as Part Three. A desirable scheme should possess characteristics such as stability and fairness and will be proposed based on Cooperative Game Theory.

Some of the main findings include: 

1. Shippers moving goods on smaller trade lanes that used to be served by feeder vessels (below 4200 TEU) should be prepared for less frequent service and port congestion, as part of the cascading impact that carriers want to deploy larger ships on those routes by merging some current port calls if the physical constrains permit at the ports.  This will be especially serious for Far East intra-regional shipments, as there is enough regional trade volume while the percentage of ports with draft constraints is smallest (29%), compared to intra-European (34%) and Central American (56%). Central America has the strongest draft constraints, as well as trade constraints (96%) in contrast to EU (91%) and FE (34%). 
2. There are 25 feeder ports (out of 56 in the sample) in FE region that are not ready for larger containerships with more than 4000 TEU capacity. Among those, 16 ports have draft limitations. 19 ports have trade constraints. Only 9 ports have NO draft limitations but demand constraints. However, since there are a lot of cargo volume in the FE region overall, the trade constraint can be easily resolved. (The average TEU throughput in FE is 35,679.) 
3. There are 115 ports (out of 123) in EU region that are not ready for Panamax containerships. Among them, 42 ports have draft limitations, and 113 ports have trade constraints. There are 73 ports with NO draft limitations but demand constraints, which could switch to larger vessels in the future, if the liner companies merge some feeder service routes. Some feeder ports may be dropped from current services while the others will get more throughputs to support using larger Panamax vessels.
4. For CA ports, there are 54 feeder ports (out of 55) that are not ready for Panamax ships. Among them, 31 ports have draft limitations, and 54 ports have trade constraints.  There are 23 ports with NO draft limitations but demand constraints which could switch to larger vessels in the future, if services will be merged. 

• Cascading Barriers of Panamax Containerships in the Intra-regional Markets [PDF]

Continuous size growing of container vessels in the past decade has led to cascading effect. The largest ship sizes are being used for the major Asia-Europe routes in replace of the old smaller ones, which again replace the other smaller ones. The goal of this study is to understand the barriers that prevent cascading and build a current database for port facilities.

More specifically, we focus on the cascading effect from the Panamax vessel sector (around 4200 TEU) on the feeder vessel sector. The old generation Panamax is under pressure of not only larger containerships but also the impact of Panama Canal expansion at the same time. As a result, they are mostly affected in terms of being replaced and will be further cascaded to other trade routes, further threatening their smaller peers — the feeder vessels.

Specifically, we will focus on two main barriers to the cascading of the Panamax vessels to the feeder market: (1) Physical constraints at the ports in those markets, and(2) trade volume constraint. These two factors are focused on because they represent the regional differences. Other influencing factors such as oil prices and charter prices have globally almost uniform impacts, and therefore are not specifically compared in this study.

The purpose of the project is to describe the concept and structure of a blockchain and explore the current applications of blockchain in the field of global logistics as well as the possible challenges accompanying the implementations.

Blockchain is a technology concept that enables the decentralized and tamper-resistant storage of verified digital data, which can be used for any exchange, agreements or contracts, tracking and payment. Over the last few years, blockchain has caught great attention and caused heated discussions in different industries, including the logistics industry. Early applications of blockchain technology indicate a favorable chance of achieving its huge potential in the future. Many blockchain projects are undertaken in global logistics. Some enterprises try to use the distributed ledger of blockchain to manage their internal supply chains, and some start to open the network for partners outside their own business-cohort.

However, before the blockchain technology can be successfully widely implemented in global logistics, it is still far from maturity with many barriers to overcome, including legal issues, technological challenges, difficulty of collaboration among different parties in the supply chain, data security concerns, etc.

• One-Belt-One-Road policy implication on logistics route competition: Case study of China-Germany trade [PDF]

China’s "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) initiative has caused great media attention and heated discussions globally since announced. It involves massive infrastructure investments and ambitious plans to reduce non-tariff barriers to trade in Eurasia and Africa and boost connectivity and commerce across the region, involving new roads, rail lines, ports, and pipeline, with China as the hub. The initiative consists of two parts: the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the sea-based Maritime Silk Road, covering areas with more than 60 countries generating 55% of the world’s GNP, 70% of the global population, and 75% of known energy reserves.

As enormous as the projects in OBOR are, the obstacles, costs, potential rewards and influences are all massive. Therefore, the policy brings an excellent opportunity for international trading companies and logistics service providers to expand their business and for targeted countries to develop their economy. To achieve these goals, it is important to first understand the current trading situation and transportation network and foresee the changes that the projects will bring.

This report focuses on the projects that are involved or closely related to the China-Germany trade routes. We will first describe the related projects in detail including their impacts on specific routes using various data sources, and then make comparison of the alternative routes in terms of shipping cost and transit time. For some of them, case studies are provided so that it can be shown how the new land corridor, and the new southern European ports are offering new options to the traditional choices for container shipments between China and Germany.

A freight flow network model will be established based on existing freight flow database analysis.  There are many possible applications of this model. It can be used to analyze current network constraints, and to forecast future freight flows along critical shipping routes. International trade policies, such as China’s “One-Belt-One-Road” (OBOR) initiative can be incorporated to analyze its potential impacts on the freight flow developments and competitions between various networks and transportation nodes, such as Port of Hamburg vs. Port of Piraeus in Greece.

A detailed comparison between the Port of Hamburg and the Port of Piraeus is carried out. The Port of Hamburg is much more advantaged than Piraeus in terms of capacity, throughput, hinterland size and inland connections. However, it is disadvantaged in the more detoured location when shipping from Far East, which plays an essential part in both ports. Transit time to Hamburg is roughly 8-11 days longer on the sea compared to Piraeus. It is expected that Port of Piraeus will continue to grow as the major transshipment hub port in Mediterranean, due to the strong commitment from the COSCO group in terminal investment and liner service. Potential competition between these two ports should be watched for.