Conference Impressions from EdinburghMacroeconomics Meets M&A Meets Machine Learning

25 June 2025

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Stine Alexandra Boente

Stine Alexandra Boente, M.Sc. and PhD candidate at the Professorship for Corporate Finance and Asset Management, presented the paper “When the economy sets the tone: Macroeconomic dominance in predicting merger waves” coauthored with Prof. Wolfgang Drobetz and Marwin Moenkemeyer at the CINSC/INFINITI Conference 2025 in Edinburgh. The paper suggests that while firm-specific factors like liquidity or profitability still matter, it’s the economic environment setting the tone, which makes macro foresight a critical tool in decision making.

From June 9 to 10, 2025, the CINSC/INFINITI Conference on International Finance took place in Edinburgh, Scotland. Representing the Chair of Corporate Finance and Asset Management at the University of Hamburg Business School, our PhD candidate Stine Alexandra Boente presented the paper “When the economy sets the tone: Macroeconomic dominance in predicting merger waves,” coauthored with Prof. Wolfgang Drobetz (Full Professor in Corporate Finance and Asset Management, University of Hamburg Business School, and Research Fellow University of Cambridge, Judge Business School) and Dr. Marwin Moenkemeyer (Research Associate, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School).

The study sheds new light on a long-standing question in corporate finance: What drives merger waves? By applying modern machine learning techniques, the paper shows that primarily the broader economic environment forges these waves, while individual firm characteristics operate as a secondary decision-making factor.

The study shows that merger waves don’t follow a simple pattern, and rather react differently depending on the economic situation, especially in uncertain times. While firm-specific factors like liquidity or profitability still matter, it’s the economic environment setting the tone, which makes macro foresight a critical tool for decision makers in timing entries, exits, and deals.

The presentation led to great discussions about the role of machine learning in finance and the interplay between firm fundamentals and macroeconomic signals. All in all, a great conference experience with lots of useful feedback, new contacts, and classic Scottish weather. The conferences ended in an amazing gala dinner at the home of Scottish rugby: The Murrayfield Stadium with traditional bagpipes music. A special thank you goes to the discussant, Prof. Wolfgang Bessler (Deutsche Börse Senior Professor of Empirical Capital Market Research, University of Hamburg Business School), for his thoughtful comments and helpful suggestions, which will bring the paper to the next level.